Tag: Rubio

Tonght’s The Night

Donald Trump
Donald Trump

This is what we have been waiting for. This is the night that all those wannabe tv stars in Iowa go to their chosen precinct meeting houses and talk about all the Presidential candidates. The Republicans have a straight forward method such there is a spokesperson for each candidate to do the selling to the others in the room. The Democrats have a different system in that they will glumly stand around waiting for something to happen. If one standing group is smaller than fifteen percent of the total, the smallest group is broken up and forced to take their dunce hats to another group.

The Democrats have a system known in certain circles as the * “Least Dis-Satisficing” election. If your candidate does not make the fifteen percent cut, they are out. In other words the Democrats do not use a positive system at all, it is like one of those reality shows where people are voted OFF the island.

I can see it now in a Democrat caucus. There will be a bunch of people milling around playing musical chairs, all the while not seeing any difference between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, both avowed socialists. Bernie just wants to give away more stuff. When the music stops, the supporters of Governor Edward O’Malley, the political genius responsible for much of the corruption in Baltimore, will find their chairs missing. Sayonara, Ed.Hillary Clinton Speaks At Event At Center For American Progress

The Republicans have in my opinion a more rational system. In the Repubilcan Iowa caucus, the members listen to the various spokespersons make their cases for their respective candidates. They will then vote for the candidate they like. This approach, attitude wise, is light years different from the negative Democrat approach. The Republicans just choose up sides based on positives, where the Democrats demote based on a negative approach.

My prediction for the Republicans is this:

1st Trump

2nd Curz Cruz

3rd Rubio

4th Christie

5th Fiorina

My prediction for the Democrat Iowa caucuses is: Who Cares? OK, It looks like Bernie may be in the lead, and we will just have to see if Hillary is going to do another crash and burn. Maybe Hillary should confess her national secrets crimes, and serve her jail time. That would be a great excuse for her losing. She will need one.

 

What are your predictions?

 

 

*Note : The term “least dis-satisficing” is one used in business schools when describing how many corporate meetings function. Many times, the alternative passed for action is the one that is the least satisfying alternative, but one that will suffice for the whole group. In life we often vote for the least onerous alternative.

GOP Field Still Crowded

GOP candidates on debate stageYou would think that the field of GOP presidential candidates would start narrowing, but it is still pretty big. So far, only Governor Pataki, Senator Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, and Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin have dropped out. In any normal election year that would leave only one or two main candidates, but this year we have a bumper crop of really smart and experienced GOP candidates.

Forget Donald Trump for a minute. Lots of people would like to forget Donald Trump, but try to do so for a minute. Of the rest of the candidates, we have Senator Ted Cruz, Senator Marco Rubio, Governor Chris Christi, and several other strong candidates would make excellent Presidents. The problem is that there are so many good choices, it is hard to come up with one overall best choice. That’s where Donald Trump comes in.

Since we cannot forget Trump, we have to be realistic and think of him as the presumptive candidate. That’s when I get all nervous and sweaty. I really don’t think Trump can beat Hillary. She will lie, and he will lie. Their lies will cancel each other, and the woman vote will put Hillary over the top. Or, maybe the woman, Hispanic, Black, Labor, “I feel sorry for myself.”, and Poor White Trash block votes will give the Presidency to Hillary. It will be a sad day in America if we let this happen.

How are the primaries going to play out? Trump will not win Iowa or New Hampshire. That will give Cruz, or Rubio, or Christie some traction going into the Old South, where Trump has been campaigning since almost the beginning of the race. My estimate is that Trump will pull it out in the South will solid majorities in the states that count. Maybe Florida will be split by Rubio and Bush, but Bush might not last until then.

I have not counted delegates, but there seems to be a way for somebody to beat Trump, or at least carry the challenge to the convention in  Cleveland. It’s going to be a rough spring and summer for the GOP candidates. Somebody has to win, and I certainly hope it isn’t Trump.