Tag: Democrat Presidential Primary

The Democrat Horse Race Begins

Former Vice President Joe Biden has finally made his official entry into the Democrat presidential primary race. There are nineteen other Democrat luminaries running, and Biden makes number twenty. The interesting thing is that the polls have Biden in a substantial lead over all the other candidates.

The Real Clear Politics average of polls have Biden at 29, Sanders at 23, Harris at 8.3, and Buttigieg at 7.5. Senator Elizabeth Warren is coming in fifth at 6.5, and the rest of the field is lower than that. The race sets Biden and Sanders as the early strong candidates, with Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg running a close third and fourth.

The weird thing about this group is that the Democrat party has declared that anybody white is bad. So, how does that square with two old, fossilized white men being the most popular entrants in the primaries? Oh, yeah, they are of the male gender, too.  The fourth candidate is a white, gay man. Gay doesn’t buy him any points, anymore. Skin color is the most important factor in Democrat politics.

The Democrat’s nod to victims of color are Kamala Harris, Senator from California, and Senator Cory Spartacus Booker from New Jersey. Booker’s campaign is in the ditch, and will probably stay there. It surely looks like there are heaping helpings of hypocrisy in the Democrat Party.

If the Dems stick to their announced values, Kamala should be a shoo-in for the Presidential nomination. I don’t think she has the experience or smarts to get there, but at this point it is hard to count anyone out except for Robert Beto O’Rourke and Senator Elizabeth Pocahantas Warren. I believed they are political zombies at this point even though they are in the top seven in the polls.

The DNC says there will be a total of twelve primary debates, with the first in June of 2019. As of today, seven of the candidates have qualified with both donation support and public poll standing for the debates. Eight candidates have qualified with only one criterion, and five have not made the grade in either to polls or number of donors.

The DNC will make sure all twenty will be in the first debate on two consecutive nights in June. Only after the first two or three debates will the large field of competitors start to sort itself out.

If Pete Buttigieg can make it past the first two debates with increasing support and financing, he may very well pull ahead of Kamala Harris, putting him in third place. At that point he has to hope that one of the first two kills off the other. I feel that Sanders can sink Biden. Buttigieg may have a chance to take it all if he can make a significant move early in the series of debates.

My speculation is that come 2020, the top six candidates will be Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, possibly Elizabeth Warren, with a dark horse coming in sixth place. Maybe Andrew Yang can be that dark horse, but he is Asian and therefore not among the chosen set of victims to lead the party of collective ignorance.

Most of the candidates are not in the running. Their raison d’etre is to establish notoriety for future political positioning.

Who do you think will be around for the home stretch?