Category: global warming

Are Experts Ever Right?

No matter what the situation, there is always some expert ready to give an opinion on what should be done. The problem is, experts are more often wrong than right.

Don’t believe me? There are studies that show this, and those studies keep on coming.

In the financial world stock brokers are sometimes considered to be experts on stocks. Having been a stockbroker, I can tell you that most brokers have little expertise in picking good stocks. There is a famous book first published in 1973, “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”, by Burton Malkiel. One of the things the book highlights is the fact that from an historical viewpoint, professional money managers, as a whole, did not produce stock portfolio gains even as high as the market averages.

Most importantly, you could buy a stock index fund mimicking the Standard & Poor’s 500 average, and you would do better than most professional money managers. Guess what? This hasn’t changed in the last forty years. There is another book titled, “Where Are The Customers’ Yachts?“. The title is  in reference that many of the yachts in marinas are owned by stock brokers, who make money whether the market goes up or down.

Then we have the medical experts, most of them being medical doctors. I have blogged about their lack of expertise, but will repeat the numbers. It is that important. In my blog, The Dirty LIttle Health Care Secret, I highlight the fact that almost 100,000 people are killed by doctors and hospitals every year in the United States. There is a name for this phenomenon, iatrogenesis. Everybody in the medical industry knows about this horrible fact, but nobody wants to talk about it.

We aren’t through talking about medical experts and their mistakes. A very well-known paper published by Dr John Ioannidis, a Greek physician and researcher with  a blue-ribbon background that includes being a professor of medicine and director at Stanford University, and an adjunct at Tufts University School of Medicine, takes aim at peer reviewed studies in the medical research area.

Up to eighty percent of randomized studies in the medical field have proven to be wrong. This is the figure that the Ioannidis team arrived at after reviewing years and years of studies. The reasons vary, but researchers are human, doing anything to acquire government grants to keep university research departments afloat. Data are adjusted to show a pre-determined outcome. Plus, up to 10% of the really large randomized trials are just wrong. How many substances have been identified to be bad for you, and then further study falsified those findings? It is common.

So much for the medical experts.

Climate science is in much the same shape. It was revealed in the ClimateGate emails that internationally prominent climate scientists cherry-picked data, doctored graphs, and produced fraudulent information to the general public to further their political agenda. Other crooked scientists have demonstrated bad conduct, like Dr Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University. He produced the infamous Hockey Stick graph that erased the historic Medieval Warm Period of about 1,000 years ago when the world was warmer than now, but without the influence of increasing greenhouse gases, i.e., carbon dioxide.  Efforts to defend Mann’s shoddy work and wounded reputation were organized by a left-wing communications company, Fenton Communications. Fenton started a website called Realclimate, where the primary blog authors are the same ones that have been known to perpetuate alarmist garbage in the climate science.

Ever heard of eugenics? Eugenics is a science about genetics that was promoted widely around the world in the early decades of the twentieth century. Its advocates believed that they could breed unwanted characteristics like homosexuality, low IQ’s, bad looks, etc. out of the population. This idea was taken to its logical extreme by Hitler’s Nazis when they undertook to eliminate entire populations of people like Jews, homosexuals, mentally retarded people, and people with other medical or hereditary conditions. There was a world-wide following of eugenics. It was the scientific consensus of the day. Now, we know better, or should. The experts were terribly wrong, but there are some who still push this pseudoscience.

How about Alar, the substance falsely accused of causing cancer in children? Alar was sprayed on apples to keep them on the trees to promote ripening. Although attacked by environmentalists who said they had evidence, nothing was ever produced to prove the allegations. Furthermore, half of Hollywood testified before Congress about how bad the stuff was, and even the EPA thought the use of alar was OK. The anti-alar publicity campaign was organized by a left-wing communications company, Fenton Communications.

The list of experts out of control goes on, and on. Why is this?

I believe that money is at the root of much of the bogus research. Most research in the US is funded by the government, and this automatically means that many research programs are politically motivated. There are literally thousands of climate scientists sucking money out of the federal government, almost all of whom preach catastrophic global warming. The government does not fund studies that propose to show that the alarmist are not correct. The whole scam started with the self-fulfilling system that promotes crises that produce votes, and that generate research money.

Some bogus studies misuse statistics. Many of the researchers are medical doctors, climatologists, or social scientists who have little training in mathematics. When you read a press release about a study, see if they quote a margin of error, like plus or minus 5%. If a margin of error is not mentioned, throw a red flag, and look into that study. You may be surprised at what you find. After all, journalists are not very good with numbers, either, and have no clue what they are publishing.

Expert opinion is fraught with risk. If so many experts are wrong most of time, how are we to make decisions?

Pay attention to your gut. Listen to your neighbors. Get a second medical opinion. If something is too good to be true, it probably isn’t. Use your common sense.

Be very careful when checking expert information. Too many people put too much trust in experts and consensus. Everybody has their agenda.

Carbon Taxes Or Trading – What Do You Know

We have all read about carbon taxes and other malicious fees that our EPA is preparing for the American public. Just how many people in the US know anything about it?

Why should there be a carbon tax? What is it supposed to accomplish? Will carbon taxes halt climate change? Are there other alternatives to handling risks attributed to climate change?

Fortunately for us, we have a guinea pig in the form of the entire country of Australia which foolishly established a carbon tax. We have the figures estimated by world-class economists and climate scientists on the effectiveness of a carbon tax in combating carbon dioxide induced climate change.

A young Australian named Topher Field recently volunteered to produce and direct several YouTube videos explaining carbon taxes and climate change for lay persons. He financed this endeavor with contributions from climate skeptics from all over the world. This is, indeed, a grass-roots effort.

Take a look at the video and decide for yourself. The bottom line is that it costs fifty times more to try to squelch carbon emissions than just adapting to possible damage.

Here’s the link to the 50 to 1 web site.

Doom! Gloom! Boom!

We get lots of propaganda from union leaders and politicians that capitalism has failed. We hear from the main stream media that climate change is the biggest threat to humanity since Godzilla. The medical community almost daily comes up with a new way you can die if you eat the wrong stuff.

Doom! Gloom! Boom! In the last century with the election of Bill Clinton, the big scare was AIDS. According to the simpletons in the Clinton Administration, AIDS was the biggest threat to the human race since Lot’s wife turned into a pillar of salt in the aftermath of Sodom and Gomorrah. Spicy language not necessary.

It is true that large populations in Africa are at risk of contracting the AIDS virus, but that is a direct result of a cultural standard of infidelity in marriage. Thanks to President George W Bush, many in Africa are being educated as to what kills people, and are now receiving treatment for that social disease.

How do all these alarmist claims originate? Most alarming, gloom and doom claims are the product of the same set of people that brought forward the last round of alarming predictions. Most famous is Paul Ehrlich, author of the 1968 book, Population Bomb, where he forecast billions of people in famine by 1980 because of the increase on world population, and the shrinking of the earth’s resources.

None of his predictions even came close to being true, and he has tried the same crap again, and again. His notable fans include Dr John Holdren, co-author with Ehrlich, and personal science adviser to Barack Obama. You will note that crazy people hang together.

www.cartoonsbyjosh.com
http://www.cartoonsbyjosh.com

It is no wonder that the American people are viewing so-called climate change with a jaundiced eye. The reason is that none of the well publicized increases in long term global average temperatures, extreme weather, or other signature global warming events have ever come to pass. There is not only no evidence of extreme weather events due to global warming, but the evidence NOAA has refutes that claim, altogether.

You can’t fool all the people all the time. However, Paul R Erhlich and others of his ilk also believe that if you tell a lie often enough, people will believe it.

Not only are these predictions of doom, gloom, and boom false, they are the product of a political scam. Who will benefit, you might ask. The politicians, socialists, and people who want to ruin your life are the first ones in line to nationalize you retirements savings, your bank accounts, and your thoughts.

All this stuff is a scientific and political scam.

Intelligence, Whither Thou Goest?

When I was in High School, I thought that people’s appearance could tell their life’s story. Think about it. High School is so socially stratified that if you aren’t in with the control group, you are not cool. I was just a nerd who had to work at various jobs after school, and I wasn’t cool. Of course, this is tantamount to saying I was stupid. I was only glad to show them otherwise.

Lots of those control kiddies never grew up. They went onto become hippies, lawyers, and school teachers. They set themselves in positions to ruin lots of lives, but mentally they were still in High School.

These are the kids who are now in the climate science alarmist, Chicken Little – “The sky is falling!”crowd, and they couldn’t be more serious. You must believe in their ideas, or you are nothing. Indeed you are denying something which to them is the basic truth in nature, whether they are intelligent enough to look at the science or not.

The Sky Is Falling crowd calls skeptics of extreme climate change, deniers. This is a direct allusion to the deniers of the holocaust, and says more about the alarmist than the climate skeptic.

You see, there is no empirical scientific evidence that the seas will rise a hundred feet in the next one hundred years, or that storms and droughts will become more common place because of global warming. I repeat, their evidence is un-scientific and it makes you wonder how they were duped into believing these ideas.

How were they duped? That’s an easy answer. They duped themselves.

You see, many of those cool High School students weren’t in the intelligent set, anyway. They would buy any story or scenario that they thought they understood, and made them feel wanted. Climate alarmism is tailor made to make sub-standard intellects feel smart. It just works out that way.

Climate Alarmism is one way that the less mentally endowed person can feel cool.

So, when you hear someone call a relatively intelligent person a denier, know that something is wrong with the accuser. Chances are that the accuser is denying reality, and thinks they are back in High School.

You see, I can handel being called a denier. My Jewish friends know better. They know the real me. However, the out of sorts climate alarmist has to depend on an army of like minded people, and it is astounding how shallow those minds really are.

Think, High School, when you hear about climate science.

The Climate Change Chant

Global Warming is real
But it’s no big deal
As any plain fool can see
The waters go up
The waters go down
The levels stay the same at the sea

When I go swimming
I keep thinking
It’s the heat of the day for me
We know it’s not smart
In the pool to fart
Or to jump in the water to pee

The temps go up
The temps go down
I think we can all agree
To shut the hell up
About the climate
It’s as good as climate can be