The Democrat Horse Race Begins

Former Vice President Joe Biden has finally made his official entry into the Democrat presidential primary race. There are nineteen other Democrat luminaries running, and Biden makes number twenty. The interesting thing is that the polls have Biden in a substantial lead over all the other candidates.

The Real Clear Politics average of polls have Biden at 29, Sanders at 23, Harris at 8.3, and Buttigieg at 7.5. Senator Elizabeth Warren is coming in fifth at 6.5, and the rest of the field is lower than that. The race sets Biden and Sanders as the early strong candidates, with Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg running a close third and fourth.

The weird thing about this group is that the Democrat party has declared that anybody white is bad. So, how does that square with two old, fossilized white men being the most popular entrants in the primaries? Oh, yeah, they are of the male gender, too.  The fourth candidate is a white, gay man. Gay doesn’t buy him any points, anymore. Skin color is the most important factor in Democrat politics.

The Democrat’s nod to victims of color are Kamala Harris, Senator from California, and Senator Cory Spartacus Booker from New Jersey. Booker’s campaign is in the ditch, and will probably stay there. It surely looks like there are heaping helpings of hypocrisy in the Democrat Party.

If the Dems stick to their announced values, Kamala should be a shoo-in for the Presidential nomination. I don’t think she has the experience or smarts to get there, but at this point it is hard to count anyone out except for Robert Beto O’Rourke and Senator Elizabeth Pocahantas Warren. I believed they are political zombies at this point even though they are in the top seven in the polls.

The DNC says there will be a total of twelve primary debates, with the first in June of 2019. As of today, seven of the candidates have qualified with both donation support and public poll standing for the debates. Eight candidates have qualified with only one criterion, and five have not made the grade in either to polls or number of donors.

The DNC will make sure all twenty will be in the first debate on two consecutive nights in June. Only after the first two or three debates will the large field of competitors start to sort itself out.

If Pete Buttigieg can make it past the first two debates with increasing support and financing, he may very well pull ahead of Kamala Harris, putting him in third place. At that point he has to hope that one of the first two kills off the other. I feel that Sanders can sink Biden. Buttigieg may have a chance to take it all if he can make a significant move early in the series of debates.

My speculation is that come 2020, the top six candidates will be Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, possibly Elizabeth Warren, with a dark horse coming in sixth place. Maybe Andrew Yang can be that dark horse, but he is Asian and therefore not among the chosen set of victims to lead the party of collective ignorance.

Most of the candidates are not in the running. Their raison d’etre is to establish notoriety for future political positioning.

Who do you think will be around for the home stretch?

5 thoughts on “The Democrat Horse Race Begins”

  1. Well, the truth is that I never expected Obama to win election in 2008; I was convinced, given the state of the country in 2012, that he could never win reelection. My sensitive ego leads me to think that state election commissions were fiddling with election results, always a possibility with Democrats (among whom are our most patriotic dead people), but it is more likely that I have no skill in predicting election outcomes.

    As regards my previous comment, I am not impressed with the educational credentials of anyone. Our colleges and universities have become diploma mills. All one needs to do to graduate from college (and law school) is parrot the professor’s preferred thesis. You would be surprised the number of law school graduates who cannot pass their state bar examination. Beyond that, almost every one of our most corrupt politicians are lawyers. By the way, lawyers led the communist revolution in Russia in 1917. If Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg were truly intelligent (which also suggests some degree of wisdom), they wouldn’t be spouting Marxist tripe with such conviction. I’ve read the enemy’s play book: Marxist ideology is an utter failure.

    My jaw drops each and every time I observe Americans shouting their approval of the Sanders’ stump. Truly, this man is a certifiable idiot, who is so far gone he can’t even form cogent sentences. Not once has he ever provided specifics to his grandiose communist plan for America. I will give him credit for one thing, though. He was honest in telling everyone that the Sanders plan will require substantial tax increases. Everyone in the audience clapped and said hallelujah. Blows my mind. Sam Huntington at AOW’s blog provided a somewhat lengthy (but complete) analysis of the implications of Sanders’ plan for America.

    I do agree with you that in the contest between an old white man and an old white man, an old white man will lose. Heh. Whether the Democratic party has been hijacked by its most radical element, I can’t yet say. Between Biden, Warren, and Sanders, I think Sanders has the best chance. Only this time … I’m not putting any money on it.

    My hope (and my prayer) is that most Americans have not been infected with the twitism of the far-left. Time will tell, and honestly, I’m getting too old to lose sleep over it. Fun to yammer about it though …

  2. Here in Michigan we have an open primary.
    With Trump a lock, we conservatives are going to have a field day voting in the Dem primary.
    I wonder who I’ll vote for.

  3. Mustang: I understand completely what you mean when thinking about college degrees. I happen to have two degrees, both from State Universities. We were never on the same academic level with Ivy League schools and other so-called prestigious institutions, but I don’t find that all graduates of Ivy League and other top tier schools to be all that intimidating. I have also met some really smart people from those institutions, too. Even though I have an Electrical Engineering degree, I knew in my junior year that I didn’t want to be an engineer. As you know, it is foolhardy to change majors in you last two years because it will cost you in more time and money to finish.

    I went into sales and marketing after a couple of years as a techy, and was amazed at how poor some engineers did their jobs. Like I said, some were great, some were less than respectable. However, I do try to give people the benefit of a doubt and let them show me there stuff before I make decisions on their competence.

    This bit about forecasting elections is just a bit of fun. As far as the individual candidates go, I am underwhelmed by such luminaries as Cory Booker who went to top schools. He must be bright, but I don’t think he is the brightest bulb in the scoreboard. Ditto for a lot of the others Dems.

  4. Ed: I am planning on having a lot of fun with the Democrat field of candidates. Off topic, did you know that New Jersey has not voter id requirement? I commented on Facebook that maybe folks could drive to New Jersey and join in to vote the idiot governor out of office. A recall petition has been approved, and there may be a recall election to get rid of the Commie.

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