You would think that the field of GOP presidential candidates would start narrowing, but it is still pretty big. So far, only Governor Pataki, Senator Lindsay Graham of South Carolina, and Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin have dropped out. In any normal election year that would leave only one or two main candidates, but this year we have a bumper crop of really smart and experienced GOP candidates.
Forget Donald Trump for a minute. Lots of people would like to forget Donald Trump, but try to do so for a minute. Of the rest of the candidates, we have Senator Ted Cruz, Senator Marco Rubio, Governor Chris Christi, and several other strong candidates would make excellent Presidents. The problem is that there are so many good choices, it is hard to come up with one overall best choice. That’s where Donald Trump comes in.
Since we cannot forget Trump, we have to be realistic and think of him as the presumptive candidate. That’s when I get all nervous and sweaty. I really don’t think Trump can beat Hillary. She will lie, and he will lie. Their lies will cancel each other, and the woman vote will put Hillary over the top. Or, maybe the woman, Hispanic, Black, Labor, “I feel sorry for myself.”, and Poor White Trash block votes will give the Presidency to Hillary. It will be a sad day in America if we let this happen.
How are the primaries going to play out? Trump will not win Iowa or New Hampshire. That will give Cruz, or Rubio, or Christie some traction going into the Old South, where Trump has been campaigning since almost the beginning of the race. My estimate is that Trump will pull it out in the South will solid majorities in the states that count. Maybe Florida will be split by Rubio and Bush, but Bush might not last until then.
I have not counted delegates, but there seems to be a way for somebody to beat Trump, or at least carry the challenge to the convention in Cleveland. It’s going to be a rough spring and summer for the GOP candidates. Somebody has to win, and I certainly hope it isn’t Trump.